The Effort To Derail Trump Will Come To Fruition On Second Ballot
The strategy all along has been to stop Donald Trump at the Convention in Cleveland. The plan has been to prevent Trump from locking up the nomination by blocking his path to get to the required 1,237 needed to win on the first ballot. By bribing delegates that are unbound, even in states where Trump has won, it is looking more and more likely that Trump will lose if the convention goes to a second ballot and beyond. Marco Rubio will almost certainly pledge his delegates to Cruz and with states coming up like Pennsylvania where there are 54 delegates that can be bought, it makes it nearly impossible for anyone to show up to the convention with the magic number.
After the first ballot, delegates are no longer “pledged” or “bound” to vote for the candidate that won their states popular vote. Beginning with the second ballot, they may vote for anyone they choose. It’s doesn’t even have to be someone who ran in the primary. This is the golden opportunity the establishment and party bosses have been waiting for. The unfortunate reality is, they will succeed if Donald Trump doesn’t show up with 1,237 pledged delegates before the convention.
This is the reason Ted Cruz and John Kasich are so confident on the campaign trail. They know that the GOP delegation are establishment party picks sent to the convention to vote for the RNC candidate of choice. These are people that hate Donald Trump and are only delegates for him because of party rules that require them to vote for him on the first ballot. This delegates will not vote for him beginning with the second ballot as they are part of the same system that gave us Mitt Romney and John McCain.
The RAW Scoop is this. The only way that Trump can lock up the required number of delegates before the convention is to continue to win and win big. He also needed to start going after unbound delegates now, even in states that he won. Pennsylvania only awards 17 bound delegates to the winner of the state which leaves 54 up for grabs, even to the losers. He must find a way to get to the majority, or it is a certainty he will lose in Cleveland.